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Characterizing the interannual variability of North Atlantic subpolar overturning
Fu, Y.; Lozier, M.S.; Bower, A.; Burmeister, K.; Carrilho Biló, T.; Cyr, F.; Cunningham, S.A.; DeYoung, B.; Dilmahamod, A.F.; de Jong, M.F.; Fried, N.; Holliday, N.P.; Fraser, N.J.; Johns, W.E.; Li, F.; Karstensen, J.; Pickart, R.S.; Straneo, F.; Yashayaev, I. (2025). Characterizing the interannual variability of North Atlantic subpolar overturning. Geophys. Res. Lett. 52(19): e2025GL114672. https://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2025gl114672
In: Geophysical Research Letters. American Geophysical Union: Washington. ISSN 0094-8276; e-ISSN 1944-8007, more
Peer reviewed article  
Available in  Authors 
Author keywords
    AMOC; OSNAP; MOC interannual variability; water mass transformation; boundary currents
Authors  Top 
  • Fu, Y.
  • Lozier, M.S.
  • Bower, A.
  • Burmeister, K.
  • Carrilho Biló, T.
  • Cyr, F., more
  • Cunningham, S.A.
  • DeYoung, B.
  • Dilmahamod, A.F.
  • de Jong, M.F., more
  • Fried, N., more
  • Holliday, N.P.
  • Fraser, N.J.
  • Johns, W.E.
  • Li, F.
  • Karstensen, J.
  • Pickart, R.S.
  • Straneo, F.
  • Yashayaev, I.
Abstract
    Variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) has drawn extensive attention due to its impact on the global redistribution of heat and freshwater. Here we present the latest time series (2014–2022) of the Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program and characterize MOC interannual variability. We find that any single boundary current captures ∼30% of subpolar MOC interannual variability. However, to fully resolve MOC variability, a wide swath across the eastern subpolar basin is needed; in the Labrador Sea both boundaries are needed. Through a volume budget analysis for the subpolar basins' lower limbs, we estimate the magnitude of unresolved processes (e.g., diapycnal mixing) required to close the mean budget (∼2 Sv). We find that in the eastern subpolar basin surface-forced transformation variability is linked to lower limb volume variability, which translates to MOC changes within the same year. In contrast, this linkage is weak in the Labrador Sea.
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