From short-term uncertainties to long-term certainties in the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet
Coulon, V.; Klose, A.K.; Edwards, T.; Turner, F.; Pattyn, F.; Winkelmann, R. (2025). From short-term uncertainties to long-term certainties in the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Nature Comm. 16(1): 16. https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-66178-w
In: Nature Communications. Nature Publishing Group: London. ISSN 2041-1723; e-ISSN 2041-1723, more
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| Authors | | Top |
- Coulon, V., more
- Klose, A.K.
- Edwards, T.
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- Turner, F.
- Pattyn, F., more
- Winkelmann, R.
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| Abstract |
Robust projections of future sea-level rise are essential for coastal adaptation, yet they remain hampered by uncertainties in Antarctic ice-sheet projections–the largest potential contributor to sea-level change under global warming. Here, we combine two ice-sheet models, systematically sample parametric and climate uncertainties, and calibrate against historical observations to quantify Antarctic ice-sheet changes to 2300 and beyond. By 2300, the projected Antarctic sea-level contributions range from -0.09 m to +1.74 m under low emissions (SSP1-2.6, outer limits of 5-95% probability intervals), and from +0.73 m to +5.95 m under very high emissions (SSP5-8.5). Irrespective of the wide range of uncertainties explored, large-scale Antarctic ice-sheet retreat is triggered under SSP5-8.5, while reaching net-zero emissions well before 2100 strongly reduces multi-centennial ice loss. Yet, even under such strong mitigation, a significant sea-level contribution could still result from West Antarctica. Our results suggest that current mitigation efforts may not be sufficient to avoid self-sustained Antarctic ice loss, making emission decisions taken in the coming years decisive for future sea-level rise. |
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