A transboundary water allocation strategy for the Aral Sea Basin the water-food-environment nexus
Hu, Y.; Sun, G.; Duan, W.; shan, S.; yanfeng, Y.; Chen, Y.; Kayumba, P.M.; Wei, W.; De Maeyer, P.; Goethals, P.L.M. (2025). A transboundary water allocation strategy for the Aral Sea Basin the water-food-environment nexus. The Innovation 7(5): 101257. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.xinn.2026.101257
In: The Innovation. Elsevier: United States. ISSN 2666-6758; e-ISSN 2666-6758, more
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| Author keywords |
climate-change;resources;energy |
| Authors | | Top |
- Hu, Y.
- Sun, G.
- Duan, W.
- shan, S.
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- yanfeng, Y.
- Chen, Y.
- Kayumba, P.M.
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- Wei, W.
- De Maeyer, P., more
- Goethals, P.L.M.
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| Abstract |
Water resource competition has disrupted sustainable development in the Aral Sea Basin, necessitating integrated strategies for the water-food-energy-environment nexus to address challenges from ongoing climate change, ecological restoration, growing food demand, and potential hydropower projects impacting water stability. This study developed a multi-objective optimization model to address these issues. Results showed relatively equitable water allocation, with Gini coefficients consistently below 0.29 across all scenarios. Agricultural water use ranged from 71.71 to 80.53 x 10 9 m 3 , while seasonal pumped hydropower storage reservoirs increased upstream controllable water to 42.91-58.47 x 10 9 m 3 (35%-44%). Hydropower remained stable owing to reservoir coordination. However, to ensure ecological flows (35.38-37.78 x 10 9 m 3 ), crop areas should be reduced by 14.37%-21.05% under SSP2-4.5 and 16.16%- 23.93% under SSP5-8.5. A trade-off emerged between benefits and water allocation equity, particularly in high-emission, low-inflow scenarios, alongside a positive correlation between benefits and greenhouse gas emissions. These findings emphasize the critical need for integrated management of the Aral Sea Basin's interconnected resource systems. |
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